Research on early warning model for cost overrun of prefabricated buildings under EPC mode
EPC模式下装配式建筑成本超支预警模型研究

摘要

装配式建筑在EPC（工程总承包）模式下的应用逐渐增多，但成本超支问题仍然困扰着项目管理。为了解决这一问题，本文提出了一种装配式建筑成本超支预警模型。通过对装配式建筑项目的成本构成进行分析，找出影响成本波动的主要因素。运用数据挖掘技术，建立了一个基于历史数据的成本预测与预警模型。通过实时监控项目的成本动态，及时发现潜在的超支风险，避免了传统项目管理中成本管控的滞后性。该模型能有效降低装配式建筑项目的成本超支风险，提高项目的经济效益和管理效率。

Abstract

The application of prefabricated buildings under the EPC (Engineering Procurement Construction) mode has gradually increased, but the problem of cost overrun still plagues project management. To solve this issue, this paper proposes an early warning model for cost overrun in prefabricated building projects. By analyzing the cost composition of prefabricated building projects, the main factors influencing cost fluctuations are identified. Using data mining technology, a cost prediction and early warning model based on historical data is established. Through real-time monitoring of project cost dynamics, potential overrun risks can be identified in a timely manner, avoiding the lag in cost control inherent in traditional project management. This model can effectively reduce the risk of cost overrun in prefabricated building projects and improve the economic benefits and management efficiency of projects.